Abstract
We develop coincident and leading employment indexes for the Connecticut economy. Four employment-related variables enter the coincident index while five employment-related variables enter the leading index. The peaks and troughs in the leading index lead the peaks and troughs in the coincident index by an average of 3 and 9 months. Finally, we use the leading index in vector-autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian vector-autoregressive (BVAR) models to forecast the coincident index, nonfarm employment, and the unemployment rate.
Recommended Citation
Dua, Pami and Miller, Stephen M., "Forecasting and Analyzing Economic Activity with Coincident and Leading Indexes: The Case of Connecticut" (1995). Economics Working Papers. 199505.
https://digitalcommons.lib.uconn.edu/econ_wpapers/199505